Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

24 Pages Posted: 17 Feb 2009

See all articles by Antonio Ciccone

Antonio Ciccone

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Date Written: December 2008

Abstract

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.

Keywords: Mean reversion, Rainfall, Transitory Shocks

JEL Classification: O0, P0, Q0

Suggested Citation

Ciccone, Antonio, Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict (December 2008). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7081. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1344640

Antonio Ciccone (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
+34 93 542 1669 (Phone)
+34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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