Persistence in Nonlinear Time Series: A Nonparametric Approach

48 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2009 Last revised: 22 Feb 2009

Juan Carlos Escanciano

Indiana University Bloomington - Department of Economics

Javier Hualde

University of Navarra

Date Written: February 6, 2009

Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to relate two important concepts of time series analysis, namely, nonlinearity and persistence. Traditional measures of persistence are based on correlations or periodograms, which may be inappropriate under nonlinearity and/or non-Gaussianity. This article proves that nonlinear persistence can be characterized by cumulative measures of dependence. The new cumulative measures are nonparametric, simple to estimate and do not require the use of any smoothing user-chosen parameters. In addition, we propose nonparametric estimates of our measures and establish their limiting properties. Finally, we employ our measures to analyze the nonlinear persistence properties of some international stock market indices, where we find an ubiquitous nonlinear persistence in conditional variance that is not accounted for by popular parametric models or by classical linear measures of persistence. This finding has important economic implications in, e.g., asset pricing and hedging. Conditional variance persistence in bull and bear markets is also analyzed and compared.

Keywords: Conditional Mean, Nonlinear time series, Non- linear Persistence, Nonlinear correlograms, Persistence in variance, Bull and bear markets.

JEL Classification: C12, C14

Suggested Citation

Escanciano, Juan Carlos and Hualde, Javier, Persistence in Nonlinear Time Series: A Nonparametric Approach (February 6, 2009). CAEPR Working Paper No. 2009-003. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1346052 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1346052

Juan Carlos Escanciano (Contact Author)

Indiana University Bloomington - Department of Economics ( email )

Wylie Hall
Bloomington, IN 47405-6620
United States
812-855-7925 (Phone)
812-855-3736 (Fax)

Javier Hualde

University of Navarra ( email )

Pamplona, Navarra 31080

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