Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?

38 Pages Posted: 2 Mar 2009

See all articles by Bart Cockx

Bart Cockx

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain

Matteo Picchio

Marche Polytechnic University - Department of Economic and Social Science; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; SHERPPA - Ghent University

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Abstract

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.

Keywords: event history model, transition data, state dependence, short-lived jobs, stepping stone effect, long-lasting jobs

JEL Classification: C15, C41, J62, J64

Suggested Citation

Cockx, Bart L. W. and Picchio, Matteo, Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?. IZA Discussion Paper No. 4007, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1351171 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1351171

Bart L. W. Cockx (Contact Author)

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Ghent, B-9000
Belgium

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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Munich, DE-81679
Germany

IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain

Place Montesquieu, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve
Belgium

Matteo Picchio

Marche Polytechnic University - Department of Economic and Social Science ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
60121 Ancona
Italy
+39 071 220 7176 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.univpm.it/matteo.picchio

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

SHERPPA - Ghent University ( email )

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Ghent, B-9000
Belgium

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