Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

31 Pages Posted: 18 Mar 2009

See all articles by Jose Angelo Divino

Jose Angelo Divino

Catholic University of Brasilia

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute; Tinbergen Institute; University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Date Written: March 17, 2009

Abstract

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.

Keywords: Daily International Tourim, Conditional Mean Models, Conditional Volatility Models

JEL Classification: C51, C53

Suggested Citation

Divino, Jose Angelo and McAleer, Michael, Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru (March 17, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1361807 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1361807

Jose Angelo Divino

Catholic University of Brasilia ( email )

SGAN 916
Office A-118
Brasilia, 70790160
Brazil
+55(61)34487135 (Phone)

Michael McAleer (Contact Author)

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute ( email )

Rotterdam
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute

Rotterdam
Netherlands

University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Tokyo
Japan

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