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Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs

64 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2009 Last revised: 18 Aug 2009

Nicolae Garleanu

University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Lasse Heje Pedersen

AQR Capital Management, LLC; Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance; New York University (NYU); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 21, 2009

Abstract

This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal current portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium.

Keywords: dynamic trading, predictability, transaction costs, portfolio choice

JEL Classification: G11, G12

Suggested Citation

Garleanu, Nicolae and Pedersen, Lasse Heje, Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs (July 21, 2009). AFA 2010 Atlanta Meetings Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1364170 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1364170

Nicolae Garleanu (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business ( email )

545 Student Services Building, #1900
2220 Piedmont Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/garleanu

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

Lasse Pedersen

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance ( email )

Solbjerg Plads 3
Frederiksberg, DK-2000
Denmark

New York University (NYU) ( email )

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

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