Elderly Bias, New Social Risks, and Social Spending: Investigating Change and Timing in Eight Programs Across Four Worlds of Welfare, 1980-2003

39 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2009 Last revised: 21 Sep 2009

Markus S. Tepe

University of Oldenburg

Pieter Vanhuysse

University of Southern Denmark

Date Written: March 29, 2009

Abstract

Over the past few decades, all affluent democracies have been coping with two major new trends: population aging, and new social risks resulting from de-industrialization. How have these trends, and their timing, affected welfare spending within and between countries? We investigate up to 21 OECD democracies between 1980 and 2003 with respect to eight separate spending categories (old age pensions, incapacity benefits, survivors benefits, health spending, family spending, unemployment benefits, active labor market programs, and education) and two composite indicators of aggregate welfare spending bias: ENSS (elderly/non-elderly spending share) and NSRS (new social risks share). We find that population aging drives up pension spending, but not health spending or ENSS. Contemporaneous levels of new social risks conspicuously fail to affect either NSRS or individual program spending. But the timing of the large-scale arrival of such risks 'on the ground' does play a key role. Countries that entered the postindustrial society comparatively late record lower NSRS values, as they spend less on programs such as education and family allowances. Institutional differences as captured by welfare regime type continue to matter crucially in accounting for variation between welfare states.

Keywords: comparative welfare regimes, demographic change, generational conflict, service economy, political temporality, retrenchment

Suggested Citation

Tepe, Markus S. and Vanhuysse, Pieter, Elderly Bias, New Social Risks, and Social Spending: Investigating Change and Timing in Eight Programs Across Four Worlds of Welfare, 1980-2003 (March 29, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1370004 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1370004

Markus S. Tepe

University of Oldenburg ( email )

Ammerl├Ąnder Heerstra├če 114-118
Oldenburg, DE D-26111
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.tepems.de

Pieter Vanhuysse (Contact Author)

University of Southern Denmark ( email )

Campusvej 55
DK 5230 Odense
Denmark

Paper statistics

Downloads
197
Rank
127,361
Abstract Views
1,252