Butter, Guns and Ice-Cream: A Simple Theory and Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharian Africa

28 Pages Posted: 2 Apr 2009 Last revised: 23 Jun 2009

See all articles by Raul Caruso

Raul Caruso

Catholic University of the Sacred Heart of Milan

Date Written: April 1, 2009

Abstract

This short paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil wars. First, a simple theoretical model of conflict which defines a two-sector economy. In a contested sector two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between 'butter', 'guns' and 'ice-cream'. Following the theoretical insights the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the size of manufacturing sector.

Keywords: Civil war, resource curse, butter guns and ice-cream, structure of the economy, panel probit analysis

JEL Classification: D74, O13, H56

Suggested Citation

Caruso, Raul, Butter, Guns and Ice-Cream: A Simple Theory and Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharian Africa (April 1, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1371832 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1371832

Raul Caruso (Contact Author)

Catholic University of the Sacred Heart of Milan ( email )

20123 Milano
Italy

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