Forecast Models of Broadband Diffusion and Other Information Technologies

Abstract

Ultrabroadband (UBB) is becoming increasingly an important techno-economic and policy issue. New advances and greater convergence of wireline and wireless technologies allow for faster communications and more applications which require higher speeds of transmission. Many countries perform relatively well (Japan and Korea) but others lag. Economists, business analysts, policy makers and other stakeholders are interested in knowing the driving forces for UBB deployment and the new applications. Many models are used to forecast the rate of deployment and explain the factors for its widespread acceptance. A review of the recent literature reveals that demand and cost factors affect positively the deployment of broadband (BB) and other related emerging technologies such as UBB. The empirical studies which use the diffusion models to forecast broadband penetration demonstrate that the forecasting capacity of these models is relatively robust.

Keywords: ultrabroadband, regulation, diffusion models, competition policies

JEL Classification: K23, L52, C50, C53