Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?

19 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2009

See all articles by Andrew Leigh

Andrew Leigh

Australian House of Representatives Parliament House; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU; IZA

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Date Written: 0000

Abstract

Do voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? Using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, I compare the effect of world growth (luck) and national growth relative to world growth (competence). Both matter, but the effect of luck is larger than the effect of competence. Voters are more likely to reward competence in countries that are richer and better educated; and there is some suggestive evidence that media penetration rates affect the returns to luck and competence.

Suggested Citation

Leigh, Andrew, Does the World Economy Swing National Elections? (0000). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, Issue 2, pp. 163-181, April 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1378604 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00545.x

Andrew Leigh (Contact Author)

Australian House of Representatives Parliament House ( email )

Canberra, 2600
Australia

Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU ( email )

ANU College of Business and Economics
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

IZA ( email )

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