Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions

Reg-Markets Books and Monographs 06-03

212 Pages Posted: 16 Apr 2009

See all articles by Robert W. Hahn

Robert W. Hahn

University of Oxford, Smith School; Georgetown University

Paul C. Tetlock

Columbia Business School - Finance

Date Written: March 1, 2006

Abstract

Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event. They are used to predict a wide range of events, from presidential elections to printer sales. These markets frequently outperform both experts and opinion polls, and many scholars believe they have the potential to revolutionize policymaking. At the same time, they present a number of challenges.

This collection of essays provides a state-of-the-art analysis of the potential impact of information markets on public policy and private decision-making. The authors assess what we really know about information markets, examine the potential of information markets to improve policy, lay out a research agenda to help improve our understanding of information markets, and explain how we might systematically improve the design of such markets.

Suggested Citation

Hahn, Robert W. and Tetlock, Paul C., Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions (March 1, 2006). Reg-Markets Books and Monographs 06-03 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1385778 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1385778

Robert W. Hahn (Contact Author)

University of Oxford, Smith School ( email )

Oxford
United Kingdom

Georgetown University

Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy
Washington, DC 20057
United States

Paul C. Tetlock

Columbia Business School - Finance ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/ptetlock/

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