Income and Distribution Effects of Migration and Remittances: An Analysis Based on CGE Models for Selected CIS Countries

70 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2009 Last revised: 12 May 2009

See all articles by Aziz Atamanov

Aziz Atamanov

World Bank

Matthias Luecke

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy; CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research

Toman Omar Mahmoud

Kiel Institute for World Economics

Roman Mogilevskiy

CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research

Kseniya Tereshchenko

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Natalia A. Tourdyeva

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ainura Uzagalieva

CERGE EI

Vitaliy Vavryschuk

CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research

Date Written: April 16, 2009

Abstract

This paper analyzes the direct and indirect income effects of international labor migration and remittances in selected CIS countries. The analysis is based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. All net emigration countries would experience a sharp contraction of private consumption in the absence of remittances. In Russia, the main effect of immigration has been to hold down the real wage (as potential capital stock adjustments in response to immigration are not reflected in our comparative-static modeling framework). The paper concludes that because of the important contribution of migration and remittances to stabilizing and sustaining incomes in many CIS countries, enhanced opportunities for legal labor migration should figure prominently in any deepening of bilateral relations between CIS countries and the European Union under the European Neighborhood Policy.

Keywords: CIS countries, labor migration, CGE model, system transformation

JEL Classification: C68, F22, F24

Suggested Citation

Atamanov, Aziz and Lücke, Matthias and Omar Mahmoud, Toman and Mogilevskiy, Roman and Tereshchenko, Kseniya and Tourdyeva, Natalia A. and Uzagalieva, Ainura and Vavryschuk, Vitaliy, Income and Distribution Effects of Migration and Remittances: An Analysis Based on CGE Models for Selected CIS Countries (April 16, 2009). CASE Network Reports No. 86. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1386684 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1386684

Aziz Atamanov (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Matthias Lücke

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy ( email )

P.O.Box 4309
Kiel, D-24100
Germany
+49-431-8814-497 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/Members/matthias_luecke_ifw_kiel_de/matthias_luecke_ifw_kiel_de/v

CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research ( email )

Al. Jana Pawła II 61/212
Warsaw, 01-031
Poland

Toman Omar Mahmoud

Kiel Institute for World Economics ( email )

Germany

Roman Mogilevskiy

CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research ( email )

Al. Jana Pawła II 61/212
Warsaw, 01-031
Poland

Kseniya Tereshchenko

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Natalia A. Tourdyeva

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ainura Uzagalieva

CERGE EI ( email )

Politickych veznu 7
Prague 1, 111 21
Czech Republic

HOME PAGE: http://www.cerge-ei.cz

Vitaliy Vavryschuk

CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research ( email )

Al. Jana Pawła II 61/212
00-944 Warsaw, 01-031
Poland

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