Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migration and Net Emigration in Forefront Sub-Saharan Countries
African Journal of Public Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2008
Posted: 21 Apr 2009 Last revised: 19 Sep 2014
Date Written: April 21, 2009
Global warming has recently raised a lot of concerns about the future of our planet in terms of inhabitability. These concerns focus particularly on the possible increase in the migration toward more hospitable urban areas within a country or toward more hospitable countries. However, to our knowledge, there is no quantitative study to assess the impact of global warming on migration in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this paper attempts to determine whether global warming increases rural-urban migration and net emigration (i.e. emigration of nationals out of a country minus immigration of foreigners into the country) over the period 2000-2005 in six forefront Sub-Saharan countries, namely Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. We found that global warming alone is insignificantly related to rural-urban migration and net emigration. However, when associated with other independent variables or cofactors such as population growth rate and gross domestic product growth rate, global warming increases both rural-urban migration and net emigration.
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