The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

Abstract

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions. Our regime-dependent pricing model provides significantly smaller pricing errors than a traditional model. Thus, the carry trade performance is better explained by a time-varying systematic risk that increases in volatile markets, suggesting a partial resolution of the Uncovered Interest Rate parity puzzle.

Keywords: carry trade, factor model, FX volatility, liquidity, smooth transition regression, time-varying betas

JEL Classification: F31, G15, G11