Economic Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union and the Commonwealth of the Independent States

CASE Network Reports No. 84

126 Pages Posted: 23 Apr 2009

See all articles by Joseph F. Francois

Joseph F. Francois

University of Bern - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies (WIIW); University of Adelaide - School of Economics

Miriam Manchin

University College London; Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano

Date Written: April 23, 2009

Abstract

We evaluate the effects of potential measures to liberalize trade between the EU and the CIS using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We look at the CIS as an aggregate and we also present results for individual CIS countries. Our CGE model takes different underlying industry specific market structures and elasticities into account. Furthermore, the model incorporates estimated non-tariff trade barriers to trade in services. The results are compared to a baseline which incorporates recent developments in the trade policy environment, i.e. the phase out of ATC, enlargement of the EU and CIS accessions to the WTO. The analysis takes agricultural liberalization, liberalization in industrial tariffs, and liberalization in services trade as well as trade facilitation measures into account. While there is important heterogeneity in the impact of FTAs on individual countries, the results indicate that the CIS as a whole would experience a negative income effect if the FTA would be limited only to trade in goods. This implies that the CIS would most likely to benefit from an FTA with the EU if it would incorporate deeper form of integration not being limited to liberalization of tariffs in goods.

Keywords: CGE, EU-CIS Free Trade Area, Russia, Ukraine, CIS

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Francois, Joseph F and Manchin, Miriam, Economic Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union and the Commonwealth of the Independent States (April 23, 2009). CASE Network Reports No. 84. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1393697 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1393697

Joseph F Francois (Contact Author)

University of Bern - Department of Economics ( email )

Schanzeneckstrasse 1
Bern, CH-3001
Switzerland

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies (WIIW) ( email )

Oppolzergasse 6
A-1010 Vienna
Austria

University of Adelaide - School of Economics ( email )

Adelaide SA, 5005
Australia
+61 8 8303 5540 (Phone)
+61 8 8223 1460 (Fax)

Miriam Manchin

University College London ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano ( email )

Via Conservatorio 7
Milan, 20122
Italy

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