Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data

IGIER Working Paper No. 141

22 Pages Posted: 2 Dec 1998

See all articles by Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino

Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino

Bocconi University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Giampiero M. Gallo

Corte dei Conti - Italian Court of Audits; University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA); Universita' di Firenze - Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G.Parenti"

Date Written: November 1998

Abstract

In this paper we suggest a framework to assess the degree of reliability of provisional estimates as forecasts of final data, and we reexamine the question of the most appropriate way in which available data should be used for ex ante forecasting in the presence of a data revision process. Various desirable properties for provisional data are suggested, as well as procedures for testing them, taking into account the possible nonstationarity of economic variables. For illustration, the methodology is applied to assess the quality of the US M1 data production process and to derive a conditional model whose performance in forecasting is then tested against other alternatives based on simple transformations of provisional data or of past final data.

JEL Classification: C53, E47, E51

Suggested Citation

Marcellino, Massimiliano and Gallo, Giampiero M., Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data (November 1998). IGIER Working Paper No. 141, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=140129 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.140129

Massimiliano Marcellino (Contact Author)

Bocconi University - Department of Economics ( email )

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Giampiero M. Gallo

Corte dei Conti - Italian Court of Audits ( email )

viale Mazzini
Roma, Roma 00195
Italy

University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA) ( email )

Via Patara, 3
Rimini (RN), RN 47900
Italy

Universita' di Firenze - Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G.Parenti" ( email )

Viale G.B. Morgagni, 59
Florence, 50134
Italy
0039 055 2751 591 (Phone)
0039 055 4223560 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.disia.unifi.it/gallog

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
84
Abstract Views
1,001
rank
331,963
PlumX Metrics