Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?

37 Pages Posted: 19 May 2009

See all articles by Lutz Kilian

Lutz Kilian

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Yun Jung Kim

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics

Date Written: April 2009

Abstract

It is well documented that the small-sample accuracy of asymptotic and bootstrap approximations to the pointwise distribution of VAR impulse response estimators is undermined by the estimator’s bias. A natural conjecture is that impulse response estimators based on the local projection (LP) method of Jordà (2005, 2007) are less susceptible to this problem and hence potentially more reliable in small samples than VAR-based estimators. We show that - contrary to this conjecture - LP estimators tend to have both higher bias and higher variance, resulting in pointwise impulse response confidence intervals that are typically less accurate and wider on average than suitably constructed VAR-based intervals. Bootstrapping the LP estimator only worsens its finite-sample accuracy. We also evaluate recently proposed joint asymptotic intervals for VAR and LP impulse response functions. Our analysis suggests that the accuracy of joint intervals can be erratic in practice, and neither joint interval is uniformly preferred over the other.

Keywords: Bias, Confidence interval, Impulse response function, Joint interval, Local projection, Vector autoregression

JEL Classification: C32, C52, C53

Suggested Citation

Kilian, Lutz and Kim, Yun Jung, Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference? (April 2009). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7266. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1405063

Lutz Kilian (Contact Author)

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics ( email )

611 Tappan Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
United States
734-764-2320 (Phone)
734-764-2769 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Yun Jung Kim

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics ( email )

611 Tappan Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
United States

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