When are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?

43 Pages Posted: 19 May 2009 Last revised: 8 Jun 2009

See all articles by Roger Loh

Roger Loh

Singapore Management University - Lee Kong Chian School of Business

René M. Stulz

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 2009

Abstract

Not all stock recommendation changes are equal. In a sample constructed to minimize the impact of confounding news, relatively few analyst recommendation changes are influential in the sense that they impact investors' beliefs about a firm in a way that could be noticed in that firm's stock returns. More than one-third of the stock-price reactions to analyst recommendation changes have the wrong sign and only approximately 10% have significant stock-price reactions at the 5% level using an extended market model. We find that the probability of an influential recommendation is higher for leader analysts, star analysts, away-from-consensus revisions, revisions issued contemporaneously with earnings forecasts, analysts with greater relative experience, and those with more accurate earnings estimates. Growth firms, small firms, high institutional ownership firms, and high prior turnover firms are also more likely to have influential stock recommendations. Strikingly, analyst recommendations are more likely to be influential after Reg FD and the settlement. Finally, influential recommendations are associated with increases in stock volatility and large absolute changes in consensus earnings forecasts.

Suggested Citation

Loh, Roger and Stulz, Rene M., When are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential? (May 2009). NBER Working Paper No. w14971. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1405979

Roger Loh

Singapore Management University - Lee Kong Chian School of Business ( email )

Lee Kong Chian School of Business
50 Stamford Rd
Singapore, 178899
Singapore

HOME PAGE: http://www.mysmu.edu/faculty/rogerloh/

Rene M. Stulz (Contact Author)

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance ( email )

2100 Neil Avenue
Columbus, OH 43210-1144
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/faculty/stulz

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

c/o ECARES ULB CP 114
B-1050 Brussels
Belgium

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