Advanced Nuclear Power: Combining Economic Analysis with Expert Elicitations to Inform Climate Policy

35 Pages Posted: 23 May 2009

See all articles by Erin Baker

Erin Baker

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department

Haewon Chon

University of Maryland

Jeffrey M. Keisler

University of Massachusetts Boston - Department of Accounting and Finance

Date Written: August 8, 2008

Abstract

The relationship between R&D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in nuclear power. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of R&D investments on the costs of emissions abatement. We find that nuclear R&D appears to be a risk-complement with R&D into Carbon Capture, providing large benefits at lower levels of abatement; and that investments in improving Light Water Reactors have the greatest expected return.

Keywords: Climate change, Technology R&D, Uncertainty, Environmental policy

JEL Classification: D81, O32, Q54, Q55, Q58

Suggested Citation

Baker, Erin and Chon, Haewon and Keisler, Jeffrey M, Advanced Nuclear Power: Combining Economic Analysis with Expert Elicitations to Inform Climate Policy (August 8, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1407048 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1407048

Erin Baker (Contact Author)

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department ( email )

Department of Operations and Information Managemen
Amherst, MA 01003
United States

Haewon Chon

University of Maryland ( email )

College Park
College Park, MD 20742
United States

Jeffrey M Keisler

University of Massachusetts Boston - Department of Accounting and Finance ( email )

Boston, MA 02125
United States
617-287-7738 (Phone)
617-287-7787 (Fax)

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