The Co-Movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis

34 Pages Posted: 27 May 2009

See all articles by Lars Norden

Lars Norden

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE); Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças

Martin Weber

University of Mannheim - Department of Banking and Finance

Abstract

We analyse the relationship between credit default swap (CDS), bond and stock markets during 2000–2002. Focusing on the intertemporal co-movement, we examine monthly, weekly and daily lead-lag relationships in a vector autoregressive model and the adjustment between markets caused by cointegration. First, we find that stock returns lead CDS and bond spread changes. Second, CDS spread changes Granger cause bond spread changes for a higher number of firms than vice versa. Third, the CDS market is more sensitive to the stock market than the bond market and the strength of the co-movement increases the lower the credit quality and the larger the bond issues. Finally, the CDS market contributes more to price discovery than the bond market and this effect is stronger for US than for European firms.

Suggested Citation

Norden, Lars and Weber, Martin, The Co-Movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis. European Financial Management, Vol. 15, Issue 3, pp. 529-562, June 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1410317 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2007.00427.x

Lars Norden (Contact Author)

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) ( email )

Rua Jornalista Orlando Dantas 30
Rio de Janeiro, 22231-010
Brazil
+552130832431 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.larsnorden.de

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças ( email )

Praia de Botafogo 190/1125, CEP
Rio de Janeiro RJ 22253-900
Brazil

Martin Weber

University of Mannheim - Department of Banking and Finance ( email )

D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
+49 621 181 1532 (Phone)
+49 621 181 1534 (Fax)

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