Will Today's Poor be Tomorrow's Poor? Determinants of the Poverty and Magnitude of the Vulnerability in Cartagena De Indias, Colombia

30 Pages Posted: 30 May 2009

See all articles by Fabio Augusto Rueda

Fabio Augusto Rueda

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Aarón Eduardo Espinosa

Universidad Tecnologica de Bolivar

Date Written: March 15, 2009

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the evolution and the determining factors of the poverty in Cartagena during the period 2002-2005. We used a probabilistic model (probit) to identify the individual characteristics that explain the incidence of the poverty in this city, the main Colombian tourist destiny and the most important industrial center of the Caribbean region. We analyze as well the vulnerability, understood like the possibility that the people can have a smaller consumption to the line of poverty in the future. The results indicate that the poverty by income has diminished in the city but continues affecting a significant proportion of the local population. The labor variables and of composition of the households (for example, the presence of children) are the most important to explain the incidence of the poverty in Cartagena. On the other hand, the vulnerability is bigger than the poverty, which represents a latent risk to make worse the condition of life of thousands of inhabitants of the city.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: Poverty, Vulnerability, Probit Model, Household Consumption, Cartagena de Indias

JEL Classification: C4, I3, R1

Suggested Citation

Rueda, Fabio Augusto and Espinosa, Aarón Eduardo, Will Today's Poor be Tomorrow's Poor? Determinants of the Poverty and Magnitude of the Vulnerability in Cartagena De Indias, Colombia (March 15, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1411775 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1411775

Fabio Augusto Rueda

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Aarón Eduardo Espinosa (Contact Author)

Universidad Tecnologica de Bolivar ( email )

Campus de Ternera, Parque Industrial y Tecnológico
Colombia

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