Long-Run Economic Growth: Modeling Exercise for Emerging Markets

5 Pages Posted: 4 Jun 2009

See all articles by Daniel Toro González

Daniel Toro González

Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar (UTB); WSU

Date Written: June 3, 2009


This document is intended to show some results about the predictions over the long run economic growth of some emerging markets. Following Lucas (2009) we successfully replicate the estimation about Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and Hong Kong, and we also use the model to predict the per capita GDP in some Latin American countries like Chile, Colombia and Mexico taking United States as the leading economy. We show that there are significant differences in the catch up process between the Asian economies and the Latin American Economies. In Latin America, the convergence process will take more than twice the time needed by the Asian economies to catch up the most advanced economies.

Keywords: economy, agriculture employment, per capita GDP, economic growth

JEL Classification: A23, F41, O33, O47

Suggested Citation

Toro González, Daniel, Long-Run Economic Growth: Modeling Exercise for Emerging Markets (June 3, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1413945 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1413945

Daniel Toro González (Contact Author)

Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar (UTB) ( email )

Manga Calle del Bouquet
Campus de Ternera, Parque Industrial y Tecnológico
Cartagena, Bolívar


Pullman, WA 99164
United States

HOME PAGE: http://cahnrs-cms.wsu.edu/ses/Pages/default.aspx

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