Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

25 Pages Posted: 8 Jun 2009

See all articles by Nikos Askitas

Nikos Askitas

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Klaus F. Zimmermann

Harvard University; German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin); University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Abstract

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data and exhibits a strong potential for the method used.

Keywords: predictions, unemployment, search engine, keyword search, Google, internet, time-series analysis

JEL Classification: C22, C82, E17, E24, E37

Suggested Citation

Askitas, Nikos and Zimmermann, Klaus F., Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting. IZA Discussion Paper No. 4201. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1415585

Nikos Askitas (Contact Author)

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany
+49 228 3894 525 (Phone)
+49 228 3894 510 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iza.org/home/askitas

Klaus F. Zimmermann

Harvard University ( email )

1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Mohrenstra├če 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

University of Bonn

Postfach 2220
Bonn, D-53012
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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