Differential Effects of Regulation FD on Short- and Long-Term Analyst Forecasts
Posted: 12 Jun 2009
Date Written: 2009
In this paper, we provide evidence that the quality of short-term analyst forecasts improved but the quality of long-term analyst forecasts deteriorated after the implementation of Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD). More specifically, our results show that the precision of the idiosyncratic information component of short-term forecasts improved in the post-FD period, whereas the precision of both the common and idiosyncratic information components of long-term forecasts declined. We attribute this result to the reduced disclosure of long-term, future-oriented information in the post-FD period. Thus our results support assertions by some analysts that FD has had a chilling effect on information that is relevant to long-term forecasts.
Keywords: Regulation FD, Analyst forecast, Idiosyncratic and common information
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