Adoption Curves and Social Interactions

46 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2009 Last revised: 3 Nov 2010

See all articles by William A. Brock

William A. Brock

University of Wisconsin, Madison - Department of Economics; University of Missouri at Columbia - Department of Economics

Steven N. Durlauf

University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 2009

Abstract

This paper considers the observational implications of social influences on adoption decisions for an environment of perfect foresight adopters. We argue that social influences can produce two observable effects: 1) discontinuities in unconditional adoption curves and 2) pattern reversals in conditional adoption curves, in which earlier adoption is found for one group of actors versus another when "fundamentals" suggest the reverse ordering should occur; in turn the presence of either of these features can, under weak assumptions, be interpreted as evidence of social influences. As such, these properties are robust implications of social effects.

Suggested Citation

Brock, William A. and Durlauf, Steven N., Adoption Curves and Social Interactions (June 2009). NBER Working Paper No. w15065. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1418923

William A. Brock

University of Wisconsin, Madison - Department of Economics ( email )

1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
United States
608-263-6655 (Phone)
608-263-3876 (Fax)

University of Missouri at Columbia - Department of Economics ( email )

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Columbia, MO 65211
United States

Steven N. Durlauf (Contact Author)

University of Chicago ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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