Wunderdog Sports Picks

3 Pages Posted: 23 Jun 2009

See all articles by Phillip E. Pfeifer

Phillip E. Pfeifer

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business


This case is little more than an e-mail that a college statistics professor received from the owner of a sports-picking service. The e-mail reports that the owner's picking system correctly picked 87 out of 149 2005 NFL games against the point spread. Students must decide what to make of this information. The case is used in an introductory course in data analysis and statistics.




Phil Pfeifer was not sure what to think when he got the e-mail from Geoff Kulesa. Kulesa had gotten in touch with Pfeifer through a mutual friend and asked for help evaluating and improving the Wunderdog system for picking winners of sporting events. Pfeifer had first checked out Kulesa's Web site (http://www.freeunderdog.com/) to see if it was legitimate (see Exhibit 1) and then asked for a short e-mail summarizing how well Kulesa's system had done in the past. At a minimum, Pfeifer knew the e-mail (see Exhibit 2) would serve as a useful classroom example. Since the Wunderdog system picked winners against the point spread, and the spread was set by a betting market thought by many to be efficient, Pfeifer knew that it would be difficult to pick more than 50% of contests correctly.

Exhibit 1


The Wunderdog Start Page

. . .

Keywords: data analysis, hypothesis test, goodness-of-fit

Suggested Citation

Pfeifer, Phillip E., Wunderdog Sports Picks. Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0719, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1423305

Phillip E. Pfeifer (Contact Author)

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business ( email )

P.O. Box 6550
Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550
United States
434-924-4803 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.darden.virginia.edu/faculty/Pfeifer.htm

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
PlumX Metrics