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A Simultaneous Equation Model of the Office Cycle for the Parisian Region (French)

36 Pages Posted: 21 Jun 2009 Last revised: 25 Jun 2009

Richard Malle

Paris Dauphine University; BNP Paribas Real Estate

Date Written: February 1, 2009

Abstract

This paper presents a simultaneous equation model for the office market. We determine supply and demand relationships to link main fundamentals of commercial real estate: net absorption, vacancy rate, real rents and construction. This model is applied to the office market in the Paris region over the 1994-2008 period. Office market cycles are then established according to different employment forecasts from 2009 to 2020. The results show that the employment cycle determines the cycle of office market fundamentals. Interest rates have a limited impact on the decisions of property actors. From 2009 to 2010, empirical results show that real rents may be historically low because of the economic shock in 2008-2009.

Keywords: office market, office rents, real estate forecast

JEL Classification: C53, O18, R33

Suggested Citation

Malle, Richard, A Simultaneous Equation Model of the Office Cycle for the Parisian Region (French) (February 1, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1423382 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1423382

Richard Malle (Contact Author)

BNP Paribas Real Estate ( email )

Levallois-Perret
France

Paris Dauphine University ( email )

Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny
Paris, 75775
France

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