Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025

16 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2009

See all articles by Franziska Holz

Franziska Holz

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Christian von Hirschhausen

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics

Claudia Kemfert

DIW Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

Date Written: September 1, 2008

Abstract

We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic several-layer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (~ share of 1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European gas markets, but less than in the current situation.

Keywords: natural gas, Europe, modeling, LNG, supply security

JEL Classification: L95, L13, F14

Suggested Citation

Holz, Franziska and von Hirschhausen, Christian and Kemfert, Claudia, Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025 (September 1, 2008). DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 823, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1425542 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1425542

Franziska Holz (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Christian Von Hirschhausen

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany
+49-30-89789-343 (Phone)
+49/30/897 89 -200 (Fax)

Claudia Kemfert

DIW Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

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