Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland

23 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2009

See all articles by Boriss Siliverstovs

Boriss Siliverstovs

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics

Rainald Oetsch

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Claudia Kemfert

DIW Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

Carlo Jaeger

GCF - Global Climate Forum e.V.; Beijing Normal University (BNU)

Armin Haas

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies

Hans Kremers

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: November 24, 2008

Abstract

This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

Keywords: climate change, GEV, Bayesian modelling, Great Alpine Heat Wave

JEL Classification: Q54, C11

Suggested Citation

Siliverstovs, Boriss and Oetsch, Rainald and Kemfert, Claudia and Jaeger, Carlo and Haas, Armin and Kremers, Hans, Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland (November 24, 2008). DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 840, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1428820 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1428820

Boriss Siliverstovs (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.diw.de/programme/jsp/MA.jsp?language=en&uid=bsiliverstovs

Rainald Oetsch

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Claudia Kemfert

DIW Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Carlo Jaeger

GCF - Global Climate Forum e.V. ( email )

Neue Promenade 6
Berlin, Berlin 10178
Germany

Beijing Normal University (BNU) ( email )

19 Xinjiekou Outer St
Haidian District
Beijing, Guangdong 100875
China

Armin Haas

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies ( email )

Berlinerstrasse 130
Potsdam
Germany

Hans Kremers

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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