Ultimate 100M World Records through Extreme-Value Theory

CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 2009-57

15 Pages Posted: 13 Jul 2009

See all articles by John H. J. Einmahl

John H. J. Einmahl

Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & Operations Research

Sander Smeets

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: July 10, 2009

Abstract

We use extreme-value theory to estimate the ultimate world records for the 100m running, for both men and women. For this aim we collected the fastest personal best times set between January 1991 and June 2008. Estimators of the extreme-value index are based on a certain number of upper order statistics. To optimize this number of order statistics we minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the moment estimator. Using the thus obtained estimate for the extreme-value index, the right endpoint of the speed distribution is estimated. The corresponding time can be interpreted as the estimated ultimate world record: the best possible time that could be run in the near future. We find 9.51 seconds for the 100m men and 10.33 seconds for the women.

Keywords: 100m running, endpoint estimation, statistics of extremes, world record

JEL Classification: L83, C13, C14

Suggested Citation

Einmahl, John H. J. and Smeets, Sander, Ultimate 100M World Records through Extreme-Value Theory (July 10, 2009). CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 2009-57, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1433242 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1433242

John H. J. Einmahl (Contact Author)

Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & Operations Research ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
5000 LE Tilburg
Netherlands

Sander Smeets

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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