Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: A General Equilibrium Analysis

54 Pages Posted: 22 Jul 2009

See all articles by Vladimir Borgy

Vladimir Borgy

Banque de France

Xavier Chojnicki

University of Lille

Cyrille Schwellnus

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)

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Date Written: July 20, 2009

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the demographic and economic consequences of endogenous migrations flows over the coming decades in a multi-regions overlapping generations general equilibrium model (INGENUE 2) in which the world is divided in ten regions. Our analysis offers a global perspective on the consequences of international migration flows. The value-added of the INGENUE 2 model is that it enables us to analyze the effects of international migration on both the destination and the origin regions. A further innovation of our analysis is that international migration is treated as endogenous. In a first step, we estimate the determinants of migration in an econometric model. We show, in particular, that the income differential is one of the key variables explaining migration flows. In a second step, we endogenize migration flows in the INGENUE 2 model. In order to do so, we use the econometrically estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in the INGENUE model, which enables us to project long-run migration flows and to improve on projections of purely demographic models.

Keywords: CGEM, Migration, International capital flows

JEL Classification: F21, C68, J61, H55

Suggested Citation

Borgy, Vladimir and Chojnicki, Xavier and Schwellnus, Cyrille, Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: A General Equilibrium Analysis (July 20, 2009). CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 385, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1436454 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1436454

Vladimir Borgy

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Cyrille Schwellnus

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) ( email )

2 rue Andre Pascal
Paris Cedex 16, 75775
France

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