An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side

24 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2009

See all articles by Alina Kudina

Alina Kudina

University of Warwick - Warwick Business School; CASE

Date Written: 2000

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide some insights on the estimation and forecasting of Ukrainian GDP from the supply side. The aggregate output is modeled on the basis of the aggregate production function estimated from official data on 33 branches of the economy. Later, the model was enhanced by allowing for some level of disaggregation. In this attempt, production functions for major sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, services etc.) were estimated separately to help account for industry peculiarities. Though the theory underlying this study is straightforward, the Ukrainian context in which it was applied assures a challenge for a researcher. The major difficulties are linked to the transitional state of the economy, characterized by structural flaws, considerable changes in statistical methodology, poor quality of data, very short time series, inconsistency of some indicators, lack of stable economic relationships and a significant shadow economy.

Keywords: GDP, Ukraine

Suggested Citation

Kudina, Alina, An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side (2000). CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 196, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1441227 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1441227

Alina Kudina (Contact Author)

University of Warwick - Warwick Business School ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

CASE ( email )

Al. Jana Pawła II 61/212
Warsaw, 01-031
Poland

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