Nickels Not Pennies: Granularity in Analysts’ EPS Forecasts and Forecast Revisions
Posted: 11 Aug 2009
Date Written: June 11, 2009
This paper extends the study of Herrmann and Thomas (2005) on granularity in analyst forecasts at multiples of nickels and finds that forecasts at multiples of nickels are more optimistic, and induce weaker market responses. Granularity in analyst forecasts combined with managers’ incentive to meet forecasts help explain discontinuity in actual EPS at multiples of nickels documented in Thomas (1989). In addition, this paper documents a hitherto unrecorded phenomenon that forecast revisions also exhibit granularity at multiples of nickels and shows that analysts are more likely to make nickel forecast revisions when they lack precise information. Forecasts that revise prior forecasts by multiples of nickels are less accurate.
Keywords: analyst forecast accuracy, rounding, analyst forecast bias, analyst forecast revisions, market response
JEL Classification: D84, M41, G14, G29
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