Intraday Price Discovery in Emerging European Stock Markets

CERGE-EI Working Paper No. 382

40 Pages Posted: 14 Aug 2009

See all articles by Jan Hanousek

Jan Hanousek

CERGE-EI (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute); Charles University in Prague; Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Evžen Kočenda

Charles University in Prague - Institute of Economic Studies; Institute of Information Theory and Automation (Czech Academy of Sciences) - Department of Econometrics; CESifo; University of Regensburg - Institute for East and Southeast European Studies; University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - The William Davidson Institute

Date Written: February 1, 2009

Abstract

We characterize the price discovery in three emerging EU stock markets — the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland — by employing high-frequency five-minute intraday data on stock market index returns and four classes of EU and U.S. macroeconomic announcements during 2004–2007. We account for the difference of each announcement from its market expectation and we jointly model the volatility of the returns accounting for intra-day movements and day-of-the-week effects. Our findings show that real-time interactions on the new EU markets are strongly determined by matured stock markets as well as the macroeconomic news originating thereby. Monetary news has virtually no impact on stock returns while U.S. prices affect all three markets. The real economy announcements have varying effects but the news on the EU current account affects all three markets in a uniform manner. Only some EU economic climate and confidence announcements affect stock returns. In general, differences in results across markets are driven by differences in key market participants. Volatility of the returns is accounted for at the beginning and end of the trading session and it declines dramatically during the rest of the day. All three markets also show a decrease in volatility by the middle of the business week. Our findings yield insights into the process of stock market integration in the EU as well as portfolio allocation on the new EU markets.

Keywords: price discovery, stock markets, intra-day data, macroeconomic news, European Union, volatility, excess impact of news

JEL Classification: C52, F36, G15, P59

Suggested Citation

Hanousek, Jan and Kocenda, Evzen, Intraday Price Discovery in Emerging European Stock Markets (February 1, 2009). CERGE-EI Working Paper No. 382. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1448618 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1448618

Jan Hanousek

CERGE-EI (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute) ( email )

Politickych veznu 7
Prague 1, 111 21
Czech Republic
420 2 2400 5119 (Phone)
420 2 2421 1374 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cerge-ei.cz

Charles University in Prague ( email )

Celetná 13
Praha 1, 116 36
Czech Republic

Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic ( email )

Narodni 3, 111 42
Praha 1, 117 20
Czech Republic

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Evzen Kocenda (Contact Author)

Charles University in Prague - Institute of Economic Studies ( email )

Opletalova St. 26
Prague, 11000
Czech Republic

HOME PAGE: http://kocenda.fsv.cuni.cz

Institute of Information Theory and Automation (Czech Academy of Sciences) - Department of Econometrics ( email )

Pod vodarenskou vezi 4
CZ-18208 Praha 8
Czech Republic

CESifo

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

University of Regensburg - Institute for East and Southeast European Studies

Landshuterstr. 4
Regensburg, 93047
Germany

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - The William Davidson Institute

724 E. University Ave.
Wyly Hall
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
92
Abstract Views
776
rank
279,701
PlumX Metrics