International Factors and Regime Change in Latin America, 1945-2005

36 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2009 Last revised: 3 Sep 2009

See all articles by Scott Mainwaring

Scott Mainwaring

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Aníbal Pérez Liñán

University of Notre Dame

Date Written: 2009

Abstract

What factors explain the third wave of democratization in Latin America? We argue that the normative preferences of political elites, radicalization in the policy process, and the transformations of the international context seem to offer better explanations for Latin American democratization than theories emphasizing structural conditions such as economic modernization, class, and natural resource dependence. Our analysis covers 20 countries between 1945 and 2005. We employ random-effects logistic regression models to assess the risk of democratic transitions and breakdowns in different national contexts. The results indicate that international forces and - to the extent that they can be measured - elite attitudes and policy preferences are better predictors of regime change than structural preconditions. A simulation based on our empirical results shows the dynamic impact of diffusion processes on waves of democratization.

Keywords: democratization, Latin America, diffusion

Suggested Citation

Mainwaring, Scott and Pérez Liñán, Aníbal, International Factors and Regime Change in Latin America, 1945-2005 (2009). APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1449044

Scott Mainwaring (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Aníbal Pérez Liñán

University of Notre Dame

Department of Political Science
2060 Jenkins Nanovic Halls
Notre Dame, IN 46556
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
246
Abstract Views
1,189
Rank
188,385
PlumX Metrics