The Impact of Global Demographic Changes on the International Security Environment

Abstract

This paper points out that virtually all growth in the global labor force in the coming decades will occur in countries that rank poorly in governance criteria. These countries are likely to face extremely large youth cohorts, but lack the ability to provide the education and attract the investment they need to provide productive work. They thus face high risks of political instability. At the same time, the aging of the rich countries of NATO and Eastern Asia will make it more difficult for those countries to manage security problems and respond to civil wars and humanitarian disasters in fast-growing but poorly governed states. Essential to resolving this dilemma will be integrating the large emerging and still fairly youthful powers -- Turkey, India, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia -- into global security frameworks, so that they can partner with and take shared responsibility for responding to such crises.

Keywords: Population, Security, Globalization, Economic Growth, Youth, Conflict, Aging, Urbanization, Migration

JEL Classification: O1