The Impact of Global Demographic Changes on the International Security Environment

US Institute of Peace International Security Series, Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds.,

24 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2009 Last revised: 1 Feb 2014

See all articles by Jack A. Goldstone

Jack A. Goldstone

George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government

Hilton L. Root

George Mason University - School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs; George Mason University - Schar School of Policy and Government

Monty G. Marshall

George Mason University, School of Public Policy

Date Written: June 10, 2013

Abstract

This paper points out that virtually all growth in the global labor force in the coming decades will occur in countries that rank poorly in governance criteria. These countries are likely to face extremely large youth cohorts, but lack the ability to provide the education and attract the investment they need to provide productive work. They thus face high risks of political instability. At the same time, the aging of the rich countries of NATO and Eastern Asia will make it more difficult for those countries to manage security problems and respond to civil wars and humanitarian disasters in fast-growing but poorly governed states. Essential to resolving this dilemma will be integrating the large emerging and still fairly youthful powers -- Turkey, India, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia -- into global security frameworks, so that they can partner with and take shared responsibility for responding to such crises.

Keywords: Population, Security, Globalization, Economic Growth, Youth, Conflict, Aging, Urbanization, Migration

JEL Classification: O1

Suggested Citation

Goldstone, Jack A. and Root, Hilton L. and Marshall, Monty G., The Impact of Global Demographic Changes on the International Security Environment (June 10, 2013). US Institute of Peace International Security Series, Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds., , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1449145

Jack A. Goldstone (Contact Author)

George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government ( email )

3351 Fairfax Drive
Arlington, VA 22201
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Hilton L. Root

George Mason University - School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs ( email )

Founders Hall
3351 Fairfax Dr.
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

George Mason University - Schar School of Policy and Government ( email )

Founders Hall, Fifth Floor
3351 Fairfax Drive, MS 3B1
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

Monty G. Marshall

George Mason University, School of Public Policy ( email )

Founders Hall
3351 Fairfax Dr.
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

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