Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration: Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange
38 Pages Posted: 26 Feb 1999 Last revised: 11 Oct 2010
Date Written: December 1998
We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast forecasts. Finally by recent advances in financial risk management, we provide a detailed application to multivariate high-frequency exchange rate density forecasts.
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