Past Experience and Methods of Territorial Dispute Resolution

Abstract

Does past win/loss record impact states’ subsequent choices of peaceful dispute resolution methods? We present a theory that portrays peaceful resolution of disputes as an effect of strategic forum shopping. During the process of decision making, each state strategically chooses between several forums; its final choice of a method is strongly based on the state’s past experience with this particular method. Empirical analysis of all attempts at peaceful resolution of territorial disputes from 1945-2003 shows that states use their record of victories and failures as an indicator of the probability of winning in a subsequent dispute. In general however, the link between past experience and choice of a resolution method follows different patterns for challenger and target states. For example, past win/loss record matters most for the challenger states that want to repeatedly resort to binding methods of peaceful resolution – arbitration and adjudication. Target states, on the other hand, place greatest trust in their experience with nonbinding third party methods.