Nonlinearity, Uncertainty, and Time Lags: Why We Must Start Planning Now to Geoengineer Earth Soon

9 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2009 Last revised: 18 Jul 2014

See all articles by Thomas Homer-Dixon

Thomas Homer-Dixon

Balsillie School of International Affairs

Date Written: 2009

Abstract

Arctic sea ice is disappearing much faster than projected, and recent research indicates it could vanish entirely as soon as the summer of 2015. This change could in turn shift energy circulation across the northern half of the planet, altering jet streams, storm tracks, rainfall patterns and food production much farther south. Loss of sea ice will probably cause faster much melting of the Greenland ice cap and thus much faster rise in sea levels. These changes, along with three characteristics of anthropogenic climate change – nonlinearity, high uncertainty, long time lags – suggest that prudent climate policy must include major support for research to cool the planet’s poles.

Keywords: climate change, geoengineering, Arctic, sea-ice, nonlinearity

Suggested Citation

Homer-Dixon, Thomas, Nonlinearity, Uncertainty, and Time Lags: Why We Must Start Planning Now to Geoengineer Earth Soon (2009). APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1450781

Thomas Homer-Dixon (Contact Author)

Balsillie School of International Affairs ( email )

67 Erb Street West
Waterloo, ON N2L 6C2
Canada

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