Nonlinearity, Uncertainty, and Time Lags: Why We Must Start Planning Now to Geoengineer Earth Soon

Abstract

Arctic sea ice is disappearing much faster than projected, and recent research indicates it could vanish entirely as soon as the summer of 2015. This change could in turn shift energy circulation across the northern half of the planet, altering jet streams, storm tracks, rainfall patterns and food production much farther south. Loss of sea ice will probably cause faster much melting of the Greenland ice cap and thus much faster rise in sea levels. These changes, along with three characteristics of anthropogenic climate change – nonlinearity, high uncertainty, long time lags – suggest that prudent climate policy must include major support for research to cool the planet’s poles.

Keywords: climate change, geoengineering, Arctic, sea-ice, nonlinearity