The True Electorate: A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey Demographics

Posted: 18 Aug 2009

Abstract

I cross-validate the 2004 general election electorate's demographic profile available from voter registration files, the media consortium's National Election Poll or exit poll, and the Current Population Survey within selected states. I find voter files and Current Population Survey to be in general agreement, but the exit poll reports an electorate that is younger and composed of more minorities. All three confirm a pronounced pro-woman turnout gap.

Suggested Citation

McDonald, Michael P., The True Electorate: A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey Demographics. Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 71, Issue 4, pp. 588-602, 2007, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1454996 or http://dx.doi.org/nfm046

Michael P. McDonald (Contact Author)

University of Florida ( email )

PO Box 117165, 201 Stuzin Hall
Gainesville, FL 32610-0496
United States

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