What's on the Table? The Doha Round as of August 2009

121 Pages Posted: 17 Aug 2009 Last revised: 6 Apr 2011

See all articles by Matthew B. Adler

Matthew B. Adler

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Claire Brunel

American University School of International Service

Gary Clyde Hufbauer

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics; Institute for International Economics

Jeffrey J. Schott

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Date Written: August 17, 2009

Abstract

The Doha Round is the longest-running trade liberalization negotiation in the postwar era. Despite its longevity, the end is not yet in sight as parties disagree on the depth of liberalization necessary in agriculture and nonagricultural market access (NAMA). This rift is prolonging the Round's completion and hindering the discussion of other important issues on the negotiating agenda, particularly services. To shed light on the debate concerning the benefits from Doha, this paper first estimates, using three metrics, the potential gains from liberalization in agriculture and NAMA resulting from the specific 'modalities' set forth in papers drafted by the chairs of the Doha negotiating groups. Next, the study estimates the benefits that could result from sector initiatives in chemicals, electronic/electrical goods, and environmental goods that go beyond the tariff cuts outlined in the negotiating modalities. Finally, prospective gains from liberalization of services barriers and improvements in trade facilitation are also analyzed. Overall, we estimate that the boost to global exports from concluding the Doha Round could range between $180 billion and $520 billion annually. Likewise, the potential GDP gains are significant, between $300 billion and $700 billion annually, and well balanced between developed and developing countries.

Keywords: International Trade, World Trade Organization, Doha Round, Tariff Liberalization, Nontariff Barrier

JEL Classification: F1, F13, F18, L6, L8, L63, L65, Q1, Q50

Suggested Citation

Adler, Matthew B. and Brunel, Claire and Hufbauer, Gary Clyde and Schott, Jeffrey J., What's on the Table? The Doha Round as of August 2009 (August 17, 2009). Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 09-6, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1456478 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1456478

Matthew B. Adler

Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Claire Brunel

American University School of International Service ( email )

4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20016
United States

Gary Clyde Hufbauer

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1903
United States

Jeffrey J. Schott (Contact Author)

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

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