Tourism Forecasting using SARIMA Models in Chilenean Regions

International Journal of Leisure and Tourism Marketing, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp.176-190

10 Pages Posted: 20 Aug 2009 Last revised: 10 May 2011

See all articles by Juan Gabriel Brida

Juan Gabriel Brida

Universidad de la República

Nicolas Garrido

Universidad Católica del Norte - Departamento de Economía

Date Written: August 19, 2009

Abstract

In this paper we search for the best SARIMA specification for forecasting arrivals in thirteen regions of Chile. We use monthly time series of arrivals from January 2004 to March 2009. The forecasting performance is assessed using data for the period October 2008 to March 2009. We use three methods for the specification of the model; the Box-Jenkins method with Akaike criterium, the method of minimizing the forecast error and the regARIMA method of the X12-ARIMA package. We compare the performance of the three methods according to their forecast results. Regions have different SARIMA specifications, resembling the underlying differences in tourism infrastructure and capacities available within each Region.

Suggested Citation

Brida, Juan Gabriel and Garrido, Nicolas, Tourism Forecasting using SARIMA Models in Chilenean Regions (August 19, 2009). International Journal of Leisure and Tourism Marketing, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp.176-190. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1457984

Juan Gabriel Brida (Contact Author)

Universidad de la República ( email )

Av. 18 de Julio
Montevideo, 1968
Uruguay

Nicolas Garrido

Universidad Católica del Norte - Departamento de Economía ( email )

Angamos 610
Antofagasta
Chile

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