How Many More Infants are Likely to Die in Africa as a Result of the Global Financial Crisis ?

18 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Jed Friedman

Jed Friedman

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG); World Bank Group

Norbert Schady

World Bank - Development Research Group

Date Written: August 1, 2009

Abstract

The human consequences of the current global financial crisis for the developing world are presumed to be severe yet few studies have quantified such impact. The authors estimate the additional number of infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa likely due to the crisis and discuss possible mitigation strategies. They pool birth-level data as reported in female adult retrospective birth histories from all Demographic and Health Surveys collected in sub-Saharan Africa nations. This results in a data set of 639,000 births to 264,000 women in 30 countries. The authors use regression models with flexible controls for temporal trends to assess an infant’s likelihood of death as a function of fluctuations in national income. They then apply this estimated likelihood to expected growth shortfalls as a result of the crisis. At current growth projections, their estimates suggest there will be 30,000 - 50,000 excess infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of these additional deaths are likely to be poorer children (born to women in rural areas and lower education levels) and are overwhelmingly female. If the crisis continues to worsen the number of deaths may grow much larger, especially those to girls. Policies that protect the income of poor households and that maintain critical health services during times of economic contraction should be considered. Interventions targeted at female infants and young girls may be particularly beneficial.

Keywords: Population Policies, Early Child and Children's Health, Adolescent Health, Gender and Health, Health Systems Development & Reform

Suggested Citation

Friedman, Jed Arnold and Schady, Norbert, How Many More Infants are Likely to Die in Africa as a Result of the Global Financial Crisis ? (August 1, 2009). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, Vol. , pp. -, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1462022

Jed Arnold Friedman (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

World Bank Group ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Norbert Schady

World Bank - Development Research Group ( email )

1818 H Street NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/nschady

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
300
Abstract Views
1,632
rank
106,327
PlumX Metrics