The Base Rate Fallacy Reconsidered: Normative, Descriptive and Methodological Challenges
Behavioral & Brain Science, Vol. 19, p. 1, 1996
17 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2009
Date Written: 1996
Abstract
We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. First, contrary to the conventional wisdom, a thorough examination of the literature reveals that base rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends on task structure and internal task representation. Second, few tasks map unambiguously into the simple, narrow framework that is held up as the standard of good decision making. Third, the current approach is criticized for its failure to consider how the ambiguous, unreliable and unstable base rates of the real world should be used in the informationally rich and criterion-complex natural environment. A more ecologically valid research program is called for.
Keywords: Base rate fallacy, Bayesian, probability
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice
By Ralph Hertwig, Gregory M. Barron, ...
-
Determinants of Diagnostic Hypothesis Generation: Effects of Information, Base Rates, and Experience
By Elke U. Weber, Ulf Bockenholt, ...
-
By Elke U. Weber and Denis Hilton