How Good are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

36 Pages Posted: 17 Sep 2009

See all articles by Fabian Bornhorst

Fabian Bornhorst

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: September 2009

Abstract

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.

Keywords: Economic models, Education, Human capital, Income, Labor markets, Labor productivity, Labor supply, Mexico, Payment systems, Poverty reduction, Private sector, Social policy

Suggested Citation

Bornhorst, Fabian, How Good are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA (September 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1474595 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1474595

Fabian Bornhorst (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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