Memories of High Inflation

42 Pages Posted: 26 Sep 2009

See all articles by Michael Ehrmann

Michael Ehrmann

European Central Bank (ECB); Bank of Canada

Panagiota Tzamourani

Deutsche Bundesbank

Date Written: September 23, 2009

Abstract

Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences about the importance attached to price stability, using a large database covering over 52,000 survey responses from 23 countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic inflation experiences tend to erode after around 10 to 15 years. The recent decline in the importance attached to price stability does therefore most likely reflect mitigated inflation concerns in an environment of low and stable inflation, but also the consequences of fading memories of high inflation. The longer central banks have successfully delivered price stability, the more important it is for them to engage in a proactive communication, especially with the younger generations, about the merits of low and stable inflation.

Keywords: inflation aversion, inflation memories, hyperinflation, World Values Survey, inflation targeting

JEL Classification: D10, E31, E52

Suggested Citation

Ehrmann, Michael and Tzamourani, Panagiota, Memories of High Inflation (September 23, 2009). ECB Working Paper No. 1095, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1476196 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1476196

Michael Ehrmann (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

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Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany
+49 69 1344/7327 (Phone)
+49 69 1344/6000 (Fax)

Bank of Canada ( email )

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Ontario, Ottawa K1A 0G9
Canada

Panagiota Tzamourani

Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
Frankfurt/Main, 60431
Germany

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