A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization

8 Pages Posted: 25 Sep 2009

See all articles by Wei Lee Woon

Wei Lee Woon

Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST)

Andreas Henschel

Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST)

Stuart Madnick

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Date Written: September 24, 2009

Abstract

This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. Information thus obtained is analyzed to predict probable future developments in the technological fields being studied. While using bibliometric techniques to study science and technology is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. Firstly, instead of being purely exploratory, the focus of our research has been on developing techniques for detecting technologies that are in the early growth phase, characterized by a rapid increase in the number of relevant publications. Secondly, to increase the reliability of the forecasting effort, we propose the use of automatically generated keyword taxonomies, allowing the growth potentials of subordinate technologies to aggregated into the overall potential of larger technology categories. As a demonstration, a proof-of-concept implementation of each component of the framework is presented, and is used to study the domain of renewable energy technologies. Results from this analysis are presented and discussed.

Suggested Citation

Woon, Wei Lee and Henschel, Andreas and Madnick, Stuart E., A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization (September 24, 2009). MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 4757-09. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1478054 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1478054

Wei Lee Woon (Contact Author)

Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST) ( email )

MASDAR
PO Box 54115
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

Andreas Henschel

Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST) ( email )

MASDAR
PO Box 54115
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

Stuart E. Madnick

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

E53-321
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-6671 (Phone)
617-253-3321 (Fax)

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