Portfolio Optimization When Expected Stock Returns are Determined by Exposure to Risk

Bernoulli, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 464-474, 2009

11 Pages Posted: 13 Oct 2009 Last revised: 26 Oct 2009

See all articles by Carl Lindberg

Carl Lindberg

Chalmers University of Technology

Date Written: October 8, 2009

Abstract

It is widely recognized that when classical optimal strategies are applied with parameters estimated from data, the resulting portfolio weights are remarkably volatile and unstable over time. The predominant explanation for this is the difficulty of estimating expected returns accurately. In this paper, we modify the n stock Black-Scholes model by introducing a new parametrization of the drift rates. We solve Markowitz' continuous time portfolio problem in this framework. The optimal portfolio weights correspond to keeping 1/n of the wealth invested in stocks in each of the n Brownian motions. The strategy is applied out-of-sample to a large data set. The portfolio weights are stable over time and obtain a significantly higher Sharpe ratio than the classical strategy.

Keywords: 1/ n strategy, Black–Scholes model, expected stock returns, Markowitz' problem, portfolio optimization, ranks

Suggested Citation

Lindberg, Carl, Portfolio Optimization When Expected Stock Returns are Determined by Exposure to Risk (October 8, 2009). Bernoulli, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 464-474, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1485362

Carl Lindberg (Contact Author)

Chalmers University of Technology ( email )

Gothenburg
SE-412 96 Goteborg
Sweden
+46 (0)704 93 63 95 (Phone)

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