The Gender and Generational Consequences of the Demographic Transition and Population Policy: An Assessment of the Micro and Macro Linkages

27 Pages Posted: 15 Oct 2009

See all articles by T. Paul Schultz

T. Paul Schultz

Yale University - Economic Growth Center; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: October 13, 2009

Abstract

The demographic transition changes the age composition of a population, affecting resource allocations at the household and aggregate level. If age profiles of income, consumption, savings and investments were stable and estimable for the entire population, they might suggest how the demographic transition would affect inputs to growth. However, existing macro and micro simulations are estimated from unrepresentative samples of wage earners that do not distinguish sex, schooling, etc. The “demographic dividend” is better evaluated through case studies of household surveys and long-run social experiments. Matlab, Bangladesh, extended a family planning and maternal and child health program to half the villages in its district in 1977, and recorded fertility in the program villages was 16 percent lower than in control villages for the following two decades until 1996. Households in program villages realized health and productivity gains that were concentrated among women, while child survival and schooling increased, and household physical assets were 25 percent greater per adult than in control villages.

Keywords: fertility decline, demographic transition, intergenerational transfers, gender

JEL Classification: J13, J21, J68, O15

Suggested Citation

Schultz, T. Paul, The Gender and Generational Consequences of the Demographic Transition and Population Policy: An Assessment of the Micro and Macro Linkages (October 13, 2009). Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 71, Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 979, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1488330 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1488330

T. Paul Schultz (Contact Author)

Yale University - Economic Growth Center ( email )

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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