Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant: Russia

32 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Elena Ianchovichina

Elena Ianchovichina

World Bank

Maros Ivanic

World Bank; World Bank - Development Economics Group (DEC); World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Will J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: October 1, 2009

Abstract

Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India,the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.

Keywords: Economic Theory & Research, Emerging Markets, Markets and Market Access, Trade Policy, Free Trade

Suggested Citation

Ianchovichina, Elena and Ivanic, Maros and Martin, William J., Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant: Russia (October 1, 2009). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, Vol. , pp. -, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1492555

Elena Ianchovichina (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-458-8910 (Phone)
202-522-1159 (Fax)

Maros Ivanic

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

World Bank - Development Economics Group (DEC) ( email )

1818 H Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

William J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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