Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan

50 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2009

See all articles by Biswa N. Bhattacharyay

Biswa N. Bhattacharyay

Asian Development Bank Institute; Asian Development Bank; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Dennis Dlugosch

WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management

Benedikt Kolb

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Kajal Lahiri

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics

Irshat Mukhametov

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Gernot Nerb

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: October 2009

Abstract

This paper proposes a macro-prudential financial soundness analysis that can be used by most developing and transformation countries with or without crisis experience as well as by developed countries with limited data. The objective is to detect economic and financial sector vulnerability, design appropriate remedial policy responses and undertake preventing actions to address vulnerabilities. The paper also discusses a process for identifying and compiling a set of leading macro-prudential indicators. The system will be tested using a case study referring to Kazakhstan.

The main novelty of the study lies in designing composite indicators for the real economy, the banking sector, the overall financial sector and finally the international economic environment of Kazakhstan and in studying the interaction of these composite indicators. An additional innovation is the relatively extensive use of qualitative business survey data to monitor vulnerability or crises; these surveys are data which until now have not been used much in this area of research.

Keywords: banking crisis, leading indicators, Kazakhstan

JEL Classification: F30, E58, E44, G20, G10, G32, G28

Suggested Citation

Bhattacharyay, Biswa Nath. and Dlugosch, Dennis and Kolb, Benedikt and Lahiri, Kajal and Mukhametov, Irshat and Nerb, Gernot, Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan (October 2009). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 2832. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1494900

Biswa Nath. Bhattacharyay

Asian Development Bank Institute ( email )

Kasumigaseki Building 8 Floor
3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, Tokyo 100-6008
Japan
(81-3)3593-5566 (Phone)
(81-3)3593-4270 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.adbi.org

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Dennis Dlugosch

WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management ( email )

Burgplatz 2
Vallendar, 56179
Germany

Benedikt Kolb

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Kajal Lahiri (Contact Author)

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
United States
518-442 4758 (Phone)
518-442 4736 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.albany.edu/~klahiri

Irshat Mukhametov

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Gernot Nerb

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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